What is La Niña?
La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are cooler than average, affecting global weather patterns. It is the opposite phase of El Niño and is part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
Understanding its impact on J&K as per Trends
Over the past 45 years, trends indicate that during La Niña events, Jammu and Kashmir typically experiences below-normal precipitation in December and February, with near-normal precipitation in January. Minimum temperatures generally remain below normal in December and January but rise above normal in February, while maximum temperatures tend to range from normal to above normal. However, regional variations may occur, leading to fluctuations beyond these patterns.
La Niña Winters and Rainfall Scenario
Winter Period: Intensity of La Niña: Precipitation Observed in J&K
2005 – 2006: Weak: Near Normal
2007 – 2008: Strong: Above Normal
2008 – 2009: Weak: Above Normal
2010 – 2011: Strong: Near Normal
2011 – 2012: Moderate: Above Normal
2017 – 2018: Moderate: Below Normal
2020 – 2021: Moderate: Below Normal
2021 – 2022: Moderate: Near Normal
2022 – 2023: Weak: Below Normal
2024 – 2025: Weak: ?
The above data leads to several conclusions:
1. Between 2005 – 2012 period, J&K experienced normal to above-normal precipitation during La Niña winters, whereas precipitation has been below-normal to normal since 2017.
2. Since 2005, there have been three instances of weak La Niña conditions, during which all three precipitation patterns – normal, above normal, and below normal – have been observed.
3. If 2024 – 2025 winter develops into a moderate La Niña, recent trends suggest that below-normal to normal precipitation may occur.
But what if La Niña conditions fail to establish?
If La Niña conditions fail to establish, the scenario will differ significantly. Trends and conclusions will shift, aligning instead with the precipitation patterns observed during ENSO-neutral years.
*And, I am asking you, do you even see any real trends from the above data? Do you see any direct relation?
The answer will be No! It seems to be a mix up of everything – from below-normal to normal to above-normal precipitation.
This inconsistency suggests that the winter precipitation in Jammu and Kashmir does not have a direct connection to the La Niña phenomenon. Furthermore, it implies no direct relationship between ENSO phases – be it neutral, El Niño, or La Niña – and winter precipitation in the region
Predicting climate isn’t that simple. It involves hundreds, if not thousands, of influencing factors. It is no simple 2 × 2 = 4 equation; it’s a highly complex process that requires in-depth analysis before making any conclusions about what a particular winter might look like. Over the past decade, many previously observed trends have become unreliable due to the shifting global climate scenario. With climate change driven by global warming, this field of study is set to become even more challenging.
Regards: Faizan Arif, Kashmir Weather
